Expert elicitation in decision analytic modelling
HEOM013 PhD project

Expert elicitation in decision analytic modelling


Contact: Dina Jankovic

 
Expert elicitation refers to a formal, structured process of extracting opinions about uncertain quantities or probabilities from individuals considered to be experts in the relevant field. It has been used as a tool for quantifying uncertainty in a number of fields: military intelligence, nuclear industry, engineering, environmental studies and more, but remain relatively unexplored in healthcare. Potential barriers to using elicitation could be reluctance to use subjective opinion as evidence in policy making, the lack of confidence in the ability of experts to correctly estimate parameters, concerns regarding the role of bias in subjective opinion (ie can experts’ personal interest affect their opinion) and the lack of guidelines on how to design and conduct the elicitation process.